Reassurances Ring False

From the Japan Times:

U.S. won’t forget abductees: Negroponte

NEW YORK (Kyodo) U.S. Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte said Thursday he understands the importance Japan places on resolving the abduction issue as efforts are under way to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula and pledged that his country would not forget them or their families.

“Japan can be confident we will not forget the abductees or their families,” Negroponte told an audience at the Japan Society in New York.

[...]The North’s official Korean Central News Agency reported Thursday that the relations between the two would never improve if Tokyo continues to link the abductions with the denuclearization issue.

In his presentation, Negroponte also described Japan as a vital partner in the six-party talks being held among North and South Korea, Russia, China and the United States.

Sung Kim, the State Department’s top Korea expert, is now in Pyongyang, where he is expected to meet with North Korean officials to advance talks aimed at scrapping the North’s nuclear programs.

[...]“Even as we focus on the goal of verifiable denuclearization in the six-party talks, the United States will continue to urge North Korea to address the abduction issue directly with Japan,” he said. “We do understand the significance of the abduction issue to the Japanese people.”

Although Negroponte’s tone is no doubt appreciated by the Japanese, I imagine they wish it had come from higher up the chain: Rice or even Bush. Furthermore, if US actions don’t match their words then the Japanese are unlikely to take Negroponte’s words to heart.

Kim’s words draw out the true message: the US will forge ahead in the Six-Party Talks and Japan should follow placing denuclearisation before the abduction issue which can be pursued in an alternative forum. Until then, the KCNA continue to have a scapegoat to bash for North Korea’s dragging of feet.

That isn’t to say that the US is taking the wrong approach. Denuclearisation has to be prioritised for the security of the Koreas, Japan, East Asia and the world. If we do not face the nuclear threat, there may be no chance to address any other issues.

Japan and the Protection of its Citizens

By now, I’m sure you’ve read that a Japanese journalist has been shot and killed in Burma (Myanmar). For those who haven’t, the victim was Kenji Nagai, a photojournalist for Agence France-Presse. Nagai had covered the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. While covering the Burmese military junta’s attack on the protesting monks and laymen, Nagai was shot through the heart and died in the streets. The Burmese government claimed he had been hit by a stray bullet, but footage obtained by Reuters suggests he was pushed over and shot at point blank. I’ve included the video below. It is grainy and ill-defined, thus it is difficult to tell whether this is Nagai’s final moments or not. The journalist stayed alive and continued taking photographs from his position until he succumbed to his wounds.

This is a tough incident to handle for Fukuda’s first week on the job. Japan was one of the first countries to recognise the military regime, and Burma is a recipient of Japanese ODA funds ($43 million in 2003). Fukuda has to stand up to this thuggish behaviour by the regime… however, there was little backbone in the response: a strongly-worded letter.

This is something my grandad does about Terry Wogan talking over the songs on BBC Radio 2, not what a state does when one of its citizens is likely to have been murdered by a foreign state’s armed forces.

That is not to say that I don’t appreciate caution, but the Burmese government were cracking down on protests using lethal force… there is nothing right in what they were doing and Japan should be outraged.

In Think Global, Fear Local, David Leheny describes the Japanese approach to counter-terrorism as a system of public awareness campaigns to prepare its citizens for the dangers abroad. Those who fall victim to hostage-takers and other criminals abroad are sometimes said to have brought it upon themselves (in contrast to those who are in safe European countries or taken from Japan, such as the abductees in North Korea).

If Japan wants a stronger security role, it can start here. I’m not advocating military action, but it should be shouting not whimpering. Bring the issue to the UN and push for sanctions. China will be annoyed, that’s for sure, but there are very few regions in the world where they would advocate a change in the status quo.

No matter what, Japan must prove itself capable of protecting its citizens. If it won’t, who will?

via from the inside, looking in

Update 2: Na na na, goodbye!

Yomiuri picks up on the worries and sentiments of some of the groups covered in the original post:

Abe decision shocks those close to pet issues
The Yomiuri Shimbun
Sep. 13, 2007

Those connected to issues that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe devoted particular energy to, expressed shock at his sudden announcement Wednesday that he intended to resign.

Shigeo Iizuka, vice representative of the Association of Families of Victims Kidnapped by North Korea, said, “Abe was one of the country’s politicians who gave the most serious thought to the abduction issue and eagerly worked to resolve it.”

“It may cause serious problems for us if he really resigns. I hope we can find someone [new] who will prioritize the abduction issue,” he said.

Iizuka expressed hope Abe would stay in office for a while longer, adding: “He may be exhausted because he’s been under so much pressure. I believe it’s too early for him to resign.”

The group’s secretary general, Teruaki Masumoto, said: “I’m really surprised. I’m at a loss for words. But I want to properly respond to the situation.”

Shizuoka University of Art and Culture President Heita Kawakatsu, a member of the Education Rebuilding Council, regretted Abe’s announcement, saying discussion at the council was approaching a crucial stage.

“I thought he’d seek the judgment of the public after getting the Diet to pass [an extension of] the Antiterrorism Law. I’m not convinced about the timing of this,” Kawakatsu said.

With Aso as the front-runner, these groups may have some hope of maintaining their strength. The question, however, remains: What does Aso stand for?

Update: Na na na, goodbye!

CNN aired a special report into Abe’s resignation, which can be found below. It provides a good overview of the day’s events.

via The Yin-Yang Report

Na na na, goodbye!

So, Abe finally tipped the king and resigned. I really thought he would hold out longer, but with possible health problems and the insane stress-levels, who can blame him?

Three questions are raised for me: Who will succeed him?, What does this mean for the abduction issue?, and What does this mean for the ‘new conservative’ agenda?*

(*)’New conservative’ was a term I used in my dissertation to describe Abe’s ilk without applying the much abused neo-con label.

Successor

Anything I say here will be a guess, but I can see possibly three candidates as of now (keep in mind that I’ve been out of the in-depth political news for a while): Aso Taro, Fukuda Yasuo, and Tanigaki Sadakazu. In fact, you’ll notice that my list is just the list from the previous LDP election, minus Abe, and with greater emphasis on Fukuda. The successor question will have a large effect on the outcomes of the other two questions.

Abduction Issue

The abduction issue appears to be being downplayed (in relative terms). I would hope that any successor to Abe can continue this trend, however, with someone as inclined towards populism as Aso might be, there is always danger of a resurgent abduction diplomacy. Either way, Japan’s basic stance towards North Korea will not undergo a significant shift at this stage: it will still refuse progress without the solution of bilateral issues. All that might change is Japan’s willingness to employ a carrot to its frequently used stick.

The ‘New Conservative’ Agenda

Clearly, regardless of Abe’s existence, there will be a hardcore section of the LDP which will share his dreams of patriotism and strength, although they may not faff around with flowery terms like ‘beautiful’. The question is really, how much strength will these proponents receive with the new successor. A like-minded individual, such as Aso Taro, is likely to maintain or increase their strength, whereas Fukuda or Tanigaki offer a less conservative nationalist outlook that might indeed weaken them.

Summary

The LDP are going to choose a new president, and ergo a new Prime Minister of Japan. Their choice will have wide-reaching implications. The abduction issue’s new turn could be reversed, and the agenda of patriotic history leading to future strength could go either way. We watch with baited breath.