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Category Archives: Personal

It has a long time since I last posted here. Following the end of university course and the beginning of life as a graduate, it got gradually harder to write with the quality I expected.

However, in the past few months I have been living and working in Japan, and I have been blogging about my time there. With the move of this other blog to WordPress.com, I will now absorb Abduction Politics into its framework. While there will be less politics per post, the overall number of posts will be greatly increased.

Please join me over at James in Japan: http://jamesinjapan.wordpress.com

So, Japanese-North Korean relations are coming to some kind of crescendo leaving a number of questions in its wake, but first, an overview:

The other side also indicated the notion that there is a need to move forward. We will hold deeper exchanges of views over a longer period next week

– Saiki Akitaka Director-General Asian and Oceanian Affairs Bureau MOFA (Sunday, June 8, 2008)

If our counterpart makes a significant step forward and takes concrete action, then we, too, will take a big step in response. If it is a small step, ours will also be small. The other side has first to carry out what it should do, and we will evaluate that to see what kind of action is deemed appropriate on our side.

– Komura Masahiko Foreign Minister (Wednesday, June 11, 2008)

We had in-depth exchanges (Thursday) on issues including the abduction problem.

-Saiki Akitaka (Friday, June 13, 2008)

Pyongyang has promised to reopen its investigation into the missing Japanese its spies abducted, and Tokyo will partially lift economic sanctions in response.

The announcement was made Friday by Foreign Minister Masahiko Komura, who said, however, that Pyongyang’s new promise is “a small step” and Tokyo will only lift the ban on chartered flights and trips between the two countries, including port calls by ships carrying humanitarian aid from private entities. The North is also willing to hand over one of the four surviving Japanese leftist radicals who hijacked a Japan Airlines jet to Pyongyang in 1970 and two of the radicals’ wives.

– The Japan Times (Saturday, June 14, 2008)

Tobias Harris discusses how this will cause fallout in the Diet, particularly in the context of US-North Korea negotiations.

Even would-be defenders of the move are skeptical. Yamamoto Ichita, a member of the association to promote the prudent advance of North Korean diplomacy, a Diet members’ league that has called for an approach to North Korea that uses both pressure and negotiation with North Korea (as opposed to just pressure), expressed fears that the US will use the new agreement to claim that Japan and North Korea are making progress, thereby enabling the US to remove North Korea from the state sponsors of terrorism list. […]

But it is revealing that even a natural defender of the government’s use of diplomacy to extract concessions from Pyongyang has greeted Friday’s announcement with skepticism for reasons having less to do with North Korea than with the US. The damage of Mr. Abe’s year in office, during which the US and Japan went opposite directions on North Korea without bothering to discuss it openly and frankly. Japanese have some right to be distrustful of the US — but at the same time, it was wrong for Japanese to think that there would be no consequences from the Abe cabinet’s hard line on North Korea. It is time to repair the damage; Friday’s announcement is a good start. After isolating itself from the other five, Japan is at the very least rejoining the process.

When you add Okamura Jun’s comments below, it seems like it was an inevitable result of Japan getting left behind in the Six-Party Talks.

Thus, the more nationalistic/hawkish elements of the media will blast Mr. Fukuda for making the deal—Sankei has already come out strongly against easing the sanctions. But there was no viable alternative. There is no way that an LDP Prime Minister, whatever his personal inclinations may be, could hope to stand in the way of a nuclear programs deal that the U.S. government is determined to push through without losing face, or worse, just possibly throw the whole process off track by giving a somewhat implausible Congressional coalition of human rights advocates and national security hawks ammunition to cut down the main track agreement on North Korea’s nuclear program. The abductees issue has existed only between the lines in the agreement under the Six-Party Talks. There is no way that the Bush administration, or any U.S. administration for that matter, would allow it to take a front seat to the main issue.

If anything, Japan is going through the motion. It is a concession of its lack of influence within the Six-Party Talks which are, if anything, just dressing for US-North Korea negotiations. The power and influence lies within those two poles. The US move towards de-listing North Korea from the list of state-sponsors of terrorism has paid lip service to Japan’s concerns over the abduction issue, but highlighting the worries of being left behind, the Kazokukai were urging the US to consider the abduction issue before de-listing as this most recent phase of abduction fever kicked up.

With the possibility of shedding the excesses of Abe’s handling of the abduction issue, it is possible that Japan can scratch back some meaningful role from the dust that has covered its seat in Beijing. One question remains: at what cost? We’ll have to wait for this to play out before we can truly tell.

The Supreme Court said Monday that 2.9 percent of defendants who pleaded not guilty to criminal charges were found innocent at their initial trials in 2007, marking the highest level in a decade.

‘Innocent rate’ rises to highest in decade, The Japan Times, Tuesday, June 3rd, 2008

The above quote summarises the progress of legal change in Japan, a country renowned for its incredibly high conviction rate in the region of 99.9%. Note that the 2.9% mentioned above by no means leave a conviction rate of 97.1%: the statistic refers to the rate of people found innocent after having pleaded not guilty.

District courts handed down rulings on 69,238 defendants last year, of whom 4,984 denied the charges against them as their trials opened.

Of the defendants pleading innocent, 97 were found fully innocent and 48 partially innocent. Among their trials were 896 serious cases, such as murder and arson, that will require the involvement of citizen judges. In the serious category, 19 of the defendants were found completely or partially innocent.

The 4,984 denial cases represent just 7.2% of the total cases brought to court. The 145 defendants that were found fully or partially innocent represent only 0.21% of the total cases brought to trial. Thus Japan can be said to have a conviction rate of 99.79%. When seen this way, this news hardly seems spectacular, despite urgings to the contrary:

The so-called innocent rate at the initial trial level was up from 2.6 percent in 2006 after hovering above 2 percent since 2003, according to the Supreme Court’s Criminal Affairs Bureau. It hovered between 1.2 percent and 1.9 percent from 1998 to 2002.

The 0.3% difference between 2006 and 2007, based on 4984 denial cases, translates into just over 14 extra people being let off.

I just finished watching Sou Masayuki’s Soredemo, Boku wa Yattenai starring Kase Ryo and Yakusho Koji. For me, this movie and more particularly its reception represents the culmination of pressure movements against the Japanese legal system. The movie is as much a criticism of the system as any of the Phoenix Wright (Gyakuten Saiban) games – which present very bleak pictures of the flaws in the system: an overly powerful prosecution, biased judges and police, and flawed evidence presentation procedures.

Returning to the movie, it is the story of a false accusation of molestation aboard a train. In this crime there are two victims: the woman who was actually molested, and the man whose life is ruined by her misidentification of him as the culprit. It is this man’s refusal to accept this charge that sets him up against the system as Sou masterfully exposes the flaws of the Japanese justice system.

“As a Japanese citizen, I was very angry to find that such injustice exists in this society. But even though I lived in Japan, I didn’t know this, and I think many others don’t know about it, either,” Suo said. “And having recognized this, I couldn’t just go on with life as if I didn’t know anything about it.”

‘I Just Didn’t Do It’ questions court system, The Japan Times, Friday, February 2nd, 2007

I can recommend this movie to anyone for any purpose. It is great entertainment as well as a great insight into both the Japanese style of power and the minutiae of the justice system.

To summarise the problem at hand, I want to leave you with the conclusion to a paper by J. Mark Ramseyer and Eric Rasmusen entitled ‘Why is the Japanese Conviction Rate so High?’ (1999):

Japanese courts convict. Courts convict in America too, of course, but in Japan they convict with a vengeance: over 99 percent of the time. Even in cases where the defendant contests his guilt, they convict over 98 percent of the time. Are courts convicting the guilty and innocent alike, or are prosecutors merely choosing the guiltiest defendants to try? Absent independent evidence of the guilt of the accused, one cannot directly tell.

In this article, we pursue indirect evidence on point. First, Japanese prosecutors are woefully understaffed. Tied as they are to a severe budget constraint, one might expect them to try only the most obviously guilty. Unbiased courts would then convict. The conviction rate would
approach 100 percent, but only because most of the defendants were guilty. […]

Are Japanese courts unbiased? Initially, Japanese judges seem to face significantly biased incentives: judges who acquit seem more likely to suffer a career penalty than those who convict. Yet a closer look at the judges punished for their acquittals suggests a classic omitted-variable problem — and returns us to our hypothesis about prosecutorial resources. The acquittals that generate apparent punishment are sometimes cases where judges sided with opposition parties in politically charged cases, and otherwise cases where the judge may simply have interpreted the law wrongly. Never are they cases where the judge decided that the prosecutors simply brought the wrong man. Instead, we know from other studies that the Japanese courts generally reward politically reliability and intelligence — and the observed punishment may simply reflect that broader phenomenon.

Welcome to Abduction Politics (http://abductionpolitics.net), the blog formerly known as I, Shingen.

I, Shingen was my attempt to consolidate the thoughts that flowed into my mind during my Masters research. Having graduated, it is about time that I got serious about continuing my research ahead of my long-term goal of a future PhD.  So, here is my serious face: a new name, banner, design and domain. I can’t promise regular and consistent posts, but I will do my best.

So, what can you expect? My primary focus will be the politics of fear percolating through Japanese-North Korean relations, with particular regard to the abduction issue. Although the issue has seen more light in the past two years, there is plenty of room for further elucidation and evaluation.

Here goes nothing…